BUDAPEST, April 3 (Xinhua) -- Hungarian conservative Prime Minister Viktor Orban, 54, is likely to secure a third consecutive victory in general elections on Sunday, local media reports said Tuesday.
According to polls, the question is the margin of Orban's victory. His party, Fidesz, is 20 percent ahead of adversaries Jobbik and the Socialist party (MSZP).
Like in 2010 and 2014, Fidesz is running in the election campaign with a junior coalition partner, the Christian-democrat KDNP party, with whom it shared power in the last eight years.
ELECTION PLATFORM
In the previous elections, Orban's coalition secured a qualified majority -- more than two-third of the parliament, which enabled Orban to change the constitution and shape Hungary.
Although a member of the European Union (EU) since 2004, Orban fiercely opposed the "bureaucrats of Brussels", and led a Eurosceptic policy aimed mainly against the migration policies and relocation quotas of the EU.
In this quest, he sought the help of the Visegrad countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary), especially that of Poland.
Poland and Hungary are subject to several infringement procedures by the European Commission.
The election campaign in Hungary has focused on two main topics -- migration and a tiff against Hungarian-born U.S. billionaire George Soros, 87.
"Our enemies are not the weak opposition parties but the agents and mercenaries of the Soros Empire," Orban recently told tens of thousands of supporters in a rally on Hungary's national holiday on March 15. Hungary would turn into an "immigrant country" if he lost the elections, he warned on many occasions.
In his battle against Soros, Orban launched attacks aimed at NGOs financed or co-financed by Soros' Open Society Foundation, and against the Central European University (CEU), a prestigious English speaking University found by Soros.
However, the move against NGOs and the university drew sharp criticism from the EU, UN and also Hungarian citizens, who have repeatedly demonstrated against the measures.
Orban neither published an election program not participated in debate with rivals in the election campaign. He set a campaign tone with a simple line, copied from U.S. President Donald Trump: "Hungary first."
OPPOSITION STRATEGY
In recent years, macroeconomic figures have been robust: an economic growth of 4 percent, a rate of unemployment under 4 percent and the stability of the local currency the Hungarian Forint.
On the other hand, opposition parties focused their campaign on corruption allegations concerning the highest circles the government, including the immediate surroundings of Orban. Scandals, allegedly linked partially to Orban's son-in-law, might put the results of the polls into a different perspective.
At the end of February, Orban suffered a stinging defeat in a by-election when his party Fidesz lost by a significant margin in Hodmezovasarhely (South). Although the polls have shown an easy victory of 60 percent over 40 percent for the Fidesz candidate, it is his adversary from the united opposition who won by 57 percent over 42 percent.
Since then, opposition parties have tried to find the most popular candidate against the Fidesz candidate and thus, maximize the chances of winning in a so-called tactical vote.
"This means opposition parties supporters are likely to vote for another opposition candidate if he or she has more of a chance to defeat the Fidesz. In other words, they dislike Fidesz more than each other," former prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany, president of left-liberal opposition party DK (Democratic Coalition), told Xinhua.
TACTICAL VOTE EFFECT
On March 27, pollsters in a conference by Nezopont Intezet (Point of view Institute) said the effect of tactical voting was hardest to predict in the upcoming general elections.
Nonetheless, all pollsters in the conference agreed that Fidesz' lead was such that only a huge turnout of more than 70 percent could endanger Orban's victory.
Up to now, a turnout of more than 70 percent of the 8 million voters of Hungary has been registered only once, in 2002. In the last elections in 2014, the turnout was of about 62 percent.
Hungarians will elect a 199-member parliament, where 93 seats are attributed on a party list and the remaining 106 seats are won in individual districts. A party has to obtain at least 5 percent of the vote to gain entrance to the parliament, while the candidate with the most votes wins the seat in the individual district.
As Fidesz is teamed up with KDNP and the MSZP with the small Parbeszed (Dialogue) party, these formations will have to jump a 10 percent barrier to enter parliament.
